Current liquidity and political risks and issues are intensified by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar. Is ShadowStats legit? : AskReddit Informal Economy Sizes. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices In terms of quarter-to-quarter change, despite a sharp monthly decline in March 2023, those January and February auto sales pulled relative real 1q2023 activity up at an annualized quarterly pace of 3.10%, following respective consecutive annualized quarter-to-quarter declines of 3.29% (-3.29%) and 2.35% (-2.36%) in 4q2022 and 3q2022. Please note: Our Data Download is currently only providing the 1980-Based numbers, but 1990-Based numbers will be introduced shortly. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. That said, there have numerous stories in recent months of misreported, headline employment gains. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. (18) March 21st to 22nd (FOMC). Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). Against its Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), ShadowStats March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [83% of the old pre-May 2020 M1]) moved higher to 120.5%, from a revised 119.8% (previously 119.3%) in February, still shy of its historic peak of 123.2% in August 2022. That said, again, Fiscal Years 2021 and 2022 (FY 2021, FY 2022, FY 2023) circumstances and prospects have continued to deteriorate meaningfully, at an accelerating pace, from conditions at the end of FY 2020 (see the next paragraph), exploding anew into the still unfolding, disastrous FY 2023. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Corrected Alternate-GDP estimate, adjusted for the continual understatement of headline GDP Inflation, and the corresponding continual overstatement of growth in the Real GDP, showed a corrected 1q2023 real annualized quarterly contraction of 0.98% (-0.98%), against a 0.50% 4q2022 gain, with an annual contraction of 0.49% (-0.49%) in 1q2023, against an annual drop of 1.16% (-1.16%) in 4q2022. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders Commentary No. (II) - REGULAR ALERTS Again, as noted after the February 2023 rate hike, despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powells continued downplaying risks for the FOMCs hoped-for imminent Recession, which otherwise ostensibly is why he was raising rates, that downturn already was and is in play. PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. Surging prices still reflect the extraordinary Money Supply stimulus following the Pandemic-driven collapse. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. Williams told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that the true headline . 1459. That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present.
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