Maura Healey, the newly elected Democratic governor of Massachusetts is the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the United States. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. We got to 59 percent in Colorado in 2022. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. 3 See also. John Fetterman. Our model predicted that the Republican nominee would win the race by about 16 points, but Moore ended up losing to Jones by 1.6 points. Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. Maggie Astor Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. State officials say that counting all of the votes may take several days. The Needle: Senate and House Forecast - New York Times For the final pre-election results projection, click here. Heres how they performed when compared with the 2020 presidential candidates. People are ready to fight. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Remember me? For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. Click here!, Click here for the National 2022 Senate Forecast, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. Yet Democrats often refrain from challenging right-wing culture-warring, as if they believe those are losing issues. Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. Heres how it works Two of the biggest discrepancies between actual and predicted vote margins involved the same candidate: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. Albert Sun In contrast, predictions for races with predicted margins of 10 points or more were correct over 95% of the time. Explore the full list of features on our site map. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles . In the current era, Democrats generally have to win contests in Republican-leaning states in order to win a majority of seats in the Senate. , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. Christine Zhang Web1 Predictions. Yet you also acknowledge that Democrats are underwater on the economy. For more, explore our 2024 GOP Primary polling average. The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. Figure 1: Scatterplots of seat change by predicted seat change in House and Senate midterm elections, 1946-2018 Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms That leaves Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the middle. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Chris Pappas, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent New Hampshires First Congressional District. Lazaro Gamio Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. Politics: Midterm Elections 2022 Senate Predictions Albert Sun We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave werent just wrong, they were designed to deenergize Democratic voters with negative sentiment. He insisted Democrats would ignore this script and that MAGA extremism would alienate the mainstream. First, as one would expect, the larger the predicted margin of victory, the likelier the prediction is to be correct. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Despite a difficult environment, Gov. The media has given Oz and Walker plenty of attention as the GOPs worst Senate candidates, but Johnson might be right NV ) Create Your Own Map. Click here! Dont punish people for it. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Maggie Astor Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took Michiganders are voting on abortion rights. Our election forecast is based on estimates for the outcomes of all Senate and House races. I talked with Rosenberg, who writes the Hopium Chronicles newsletter on Substack, about his optimism for 2024. . We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09.
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